The National Hurricane Center accurately predicted the path of Hurricane Irma, which struck southwest Florida on Sept. 8. This was not an easy storm to forecast, though, as computer models disagreed with one another on important details right up until landfall.
But in general, the European model, which is run by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), performed far better than the premiere U.S. model, known as the Global Forecast System (GFS).
Hurricane Irma is one more in a long line of storms to shine a spotlight on problems with the GFS, particularly at intermediate to longer timescales. The issue gained prominence after Hurricane Sandy struck New Jersey in October 2012, which the European model hinted at at least a week in advance. The GFS model, however, didn't catch on to the storm's unusual track until about 5 days in advance. Read more...
More about Climate, Extreme Weather, Ecmwf, Hurricanes, and European Modelvia Zero Tech Blog
